Mapping high-biodiversity forests and green infrastructure in Sweden: as restoration planning support for EU forest restoration goals
Information
Författare: Hanna Nilsson, Rachel VaughnBeräknat färdigt: 2025-06
Handledare: Johan Svensson
Handledares företag/institution: SLU
Ämnesgranskare: Anders Larsolle
Övrigt: -
Presentationer
Presentation av Hanna NilssonPresentationstid: 2025-05-22 14:15
Presentation av Rachel Vaughn
Presentationstid: 2025-05-22 15:15
Opponenter: Klara Strömqvist, Olivia Högstedt Petersén
Abstract
To meet the targets of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, Sweden must not only increase the area of protected forests but ensure that conservation efforts are ecologically meaningful and spatially balanced. This study applied Naturvärdeskarta Skog (NVK Skog), a machine learning-based high conservation value forest (HCVF) model that pro- vides the HCVF-probability per 1-ha pixel, to identify priority areas for additional forest protection across Sweden’s counties. By combining national land cover data with the HCVF-probabilities, the analysis quantified protection gaps at the county level, and eval- uated forest type representation and conservation value under different planning scenar- ios. Results indicated that Sweden’s current forest protection network has made notable progress toward the 10% protection target, particularly in northern mountainous coun- ties. However, reaching the 30% target presents greater challenges, especially in central and southern counties, where achieving the goal will require setting aside a large share – in several cases around a quarter – of the remaining forest land. The conservation value of this additional protection, as indicated by HCVF-probabilities, varies significantly across regions. We then examined the effectiveness of guiding conservation efforts through ex- isting green infrastructure (GI) planning, within which recognized Forest Conservation Tracts (FCT) play a central role. Although FCT often cover areas with a concentration of ecologically valuable forests, their delineation can, in some cases, be broad and include areas of lower conservation value. In such instances, NVK Skog was used to enhance GI planning by identifying high-value sub-areas within FCT, enabling more targeted and efficient conservation efforts. Where the designated FCT were too limited in areal ex- tent to meet protection targets, NVK Skog was used to locate high-probability HCVF areas beyond their boundaries. These findings underscore the need for flexible and strate- gic conservation planning that can complement and refine existing GI frameworks and showcase the capacity of NVK Skog as a restoration and conservation planning tool.