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Short-term energy market effects from icing on wind turbines: Intraday and regulating market price dynamics in northern Sweden and Finland during icing-influenced wind power production

Information

Författare: Alva Wesslén
Beräknat färdigt: 2025-08
Handledare: Arvid Malmström
Handledares företag/institution: Vattenfall AB
Ämnesgranskare: Göran Ericsson
Övrigt: -


Presentation

Presentatör: Alva Wesslén
Presentationstid: 2025-06-11 16:15
Opponent: Nils Knutsson

Abstract

This thesis investigates how wind power production deviations caused by icing affect price levels, regulation direction and volatility in the intraday and balancing markets. It also includes a temporal analysis of price signals during the onset and recovery phases of icing events. The analysis focuses on SE2 in Sweden and the Finnish power system, using market and production data from October to April over the years 2021–2024. Icing events are identified based on deviations from expected wind power output. Market data during these events are compared to a reference period to analyze price dynamics relative to the day-ahead market. The hypothesis is that sudden production losses due to icing lead to increased up-regulation needs, higher imbalance costs and potential for rising intraday prices, while the recovery phase is expected to show down-regulation and falling prices. The results show that average intraday and imbalance prices during icing events are above the spot price in both SE2 and Finland. In SE2, down-regulation remains the most common, with only a slight shift toward up-regulation, while Finland shows a significant increase in up-regulation hours. Imbalance price spreads become more volatile during icing, with distributions shifting toward more extreme values, both higher up-regulation prices and more negative down-regulation prices. Temporal patterns suggest a tendency for early up-regulation followed by delayed intraday price increases, although this appears to be driven by outliers. No clear trend is observed at the end of events. Overall, the findings indicate that icing can lead to notable shifts in market behavior and that market responses vary, both over time and between regions. These insights may support improved forecasting and risk-aware trading under uncertain production conditions.

Ladda ner rapporten

Short-term energy market effects from icing on wind turbines: Intraday and regulating market price dynamics in northern Sweden and Finland during icing-influenced wind power production
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Integritetspolicy | STS-programmet 2024