Abstract

The ratification of the Paris agreement has motivated nations to investigate how substantial greenhouse gas emission reductions can be accomplished for limiting global warming under two degrees Celsius. In Sweden, the magnitude of emissions from domestic transportation is approximately equal to all other sectors’ emissions combined. It is therefore crucial for Sweden to stimulate substantial reductions in this sector. However, local actors’ possibility to contribute to climate change mitigation is central to succeed albeit constrained in the transportation sector due to data and resource limitations. With the intention to benefit local climate change mitigation work, a model capable of estimating the tailpipe CO2 emissions from passenger cars driven by a municipality’s citizens for the period of 1999-2017 was created during the master thesis. The modelling exploited data from mandatory vehicle checks conducted in Sweden for calculating CO2 emissions per car and year to thereafter be aggregated, i.e. a bottom-up approach. Model results have been validated in relation to how emissions officially are estimated in Sweden, whereas model configurations have been controlled with sensitivity analyses. The model was also applied for a case-study, Järfälla, a municipality who recently had a carbon budget created for them. Model results illustrated the development of CO2 emissions per fuel technology, per mass classes and per car age for the period of 1999-2017. Moreover, the model was applied to produce CO2 estimates per postal codes in the municipality for 2017 and to quantify the effect of scenarios on CO2 emissions based on What-if scenarios.