Abstract

The aim of this thesis is to increase the understanding of small-scale green energy technology development. In the transition towards a fossil free energy system, heat pumps are a low emission heating alternative. Contrary to other types of new small-scale green energy technology such as solar cells and electric vehicles, heat pumps have established on the Swedish market with more than half the share of single-family detached houses. This makes it possible to study a mature technology, and that knowledge could be valuable in the development and deployment of other technologies with similar small-scale green characteristics.

The type of heat pump technology studied in this thesis is ground source heat pumps, and their development is explored from an economic and performance perspective, using the concept of learning. Learning tracks how a product develops for each doubling of units produced. The results show that the development of ground source heat pumps has undergone two major stages. The first one forming a standardized product, resulting in small price reductions. In the second phase, the development is focused on efficiency improvements and additional features, resulting in a price increase. The main area of progress is increased efficiency, not only of the ground source heat pump itself, but of the surrounding conditions of the heat pump. This development has a large impact on the profitability and the environmental footprints of the ground source heat pump. The most important factors underpinning this development are a relatively low price of electricity, and governmental regulations and support.