Abstract

Current approaches to the energy transition are heavily focused on supply-side decarbonisation. Still, there is growing scientific consensus that demand reduction measures are indispensable to ensure a rapid and equitable transition. As yet, increasing energy efficiency, i.e. decreasing energy intensity, has been the main approach. However, as efficiency improvements risk being counteracted by rebound effects and growing demand for energy services, the concept of sufficiency measures has been introduced as a complementary demand reduction strategy. Sufficiency aims for absolute energy savings, targeting the root of energy demand – human needs and norms related to energy use, posing questions of what a good life looks like, and what part energy plays in it.

Despite increasing research, sufficiency is largely absent from energy policy and climate plans. This thesis explores said research-policy gap by investigating sufficiency in the context of quantitative energy system modelling and scenario analyses informing policy.

Initially, a structured literature review of quantification and modelling of energy sufficiency was conducted. It found differing approaches to include sufficiency both by exogenous assumptions and endogenous integration. Moreover, emphasis was on establishing robust sufficiency assumptions and indicators. Although significant uncertainty was acknowledged, this was not seen as uniquely connected to sufficiency nor as justifying exclusion of sufficiency altogether.

Secondly, a document study of six recent Swedish and Nordic energy scenarios found that only one quantified the potential impact of behavioural change. Furthermore, main attention was on enabling the electrification of industry and traffic, with a supply-side focus. Assumed demand reduction was almost exclusively in the form of efficiency improvements.

Lastly, in-depth interviews with five key informants provided insights on barriers and opportunities for operationalising sufficiency in practice. Most importantly, the concept of sufficiency was unfamiliar to most informants and different existing definitions produced different responses. Sufficiency as a state restrained by a minimum and maximum consumption was viewed as controversial and difficult to operationalise, while sufficiency as a demand reduction strategy was viewed as rather self-evident and hence also difficult to operationalise. To incorporate sufficiency measures in modelling, informants highlighted access to relevant, detailed, empirical data and interdisciplinary cooperation. Additionally, inclusion of sufficiency was connected to a tension between providing realistic scenario trajectories while also exploring radically different futures. Hence, embedding sufficiency quantifications in coherent qualitative narratives appeared essential. Finally, informants raised concerns of defining appropriate system boundaries when investigating sufficiency potentials so as to avoid suboptimization.